Eurasia Group

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Eurasia Group is a political risk consultancy founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer, with offices in New York City, Washington, D.C., London, Tokyo, São Paulo, San Francisco, and Singapore. In 2010, Patrick Tucker of the World Future Society described the group as "the world's largest political-risk consultancy".

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Top 10 Risks

In January every year, Eurasia Group publishes a "Top 10 Risks" report for the coming year, along with notable red herrings (issues of general concern it does not think are substantial risks). Eurasia Group keeps the Top 10 Risks posted on its website for the remainder of the year.

In January 2011, Eurasia Group's top risk was the G-Zero world, where "the world's major powers set aside aspirations for global leadership--alone, coordinated, or otherwise--and look primarily inward for their policy priorities. Key institutions that provide global governance become arenas not for collaboration but for confrontation". In a G-Zero world, "The U.S. lacks the resources to continue as primary provider of public goods, and rising powers are too preoccupied with problems at home to welcome the burdens that come with international leadership."

In January 2012, Eurasia Group announced that the "end of the 911 era" was its top risk for the year. The report described a "world where politics and economics overlap almost entirely", and where investors will become increasingly risk-averse and the baseline of risk becomes exaggerated. Other top 10 risks included (in order): "G-Zero and the Middle East," "Eurozone," "US, "North Korea, "Pakistan," "China," "Egypt," "South Africa," and "Venezuela."

In January 2013, Eurasia Group announced that "the era of emerging market abundance is finished", and listed volatility in emerging markets as the year's top risk. The report breaks down emerging markets into those "becoming developed", "still emerging--and problematically so", and "backsliding", and outlined the downside risk of markets in each category. Also listed in the report as top risks were (in order) "China v. information", "Arab summer", "Washington Politics", "JIBs - Japan, Israel and Britain", "Europe", "East Asian geopolitics", "Iran", "India", and "South Africa."

In 2014, the Top Risk was "America's troubled alliances", stating that: "Washington's second-tier allies will begin to shift their international orientation in response to a weakening US foreign policy."

In 2015, the Top Risk was "The Politics of Europe". The report stated, "Europe's economics are in substantially better shape than at the height of the Eurozone crisis, but the politics is now much worse...That's true on three different levels: bottom-up, intra-EU, and outside-in."

In 2016, Eurasia Group's Top Risk was "the hollow alliance", referring to the trans-Atlantic partnership. They wrote, "the world's most important alliance for nearly seventy years...it's now weaker, and less relevant, than at any point in decades".

In 2016, the group predicted that the trend toward a world without a global leader would continue in 2017 in their forecast for the year. They described it as "a period of geopolitical recession", and wrote that the continued "populist revolt" against globalism was evidenced by the United Kingdom's departure from the EU (Brexit) and the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, among other events of 2016.

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Partnerships

Eurasia Group announced a partnership with Nikko Asset Management in 2015 to incorporate political risk analysis into emerging market investment funds. According to The Wall Street Journal, "this is the first such partnership between the consultancy and an asset manager".

Announcing a partnership with NYSE Euronext, Eurasia Group rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18, 2009.

In April 2018, Eurasia Group announced it will partner with Good Judgment Inc. to combine superforecasting methodologies co-developed by Philip Tetlock with their knowledge of the global geopolitical landscape.

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Acquisitions

In March 2007, Eurasia Group acquired the assets of Intellibridge, a Washington, D.C.-based strategic advisory firm founded by former-National Security Advisor Anthony Lake and David Rothkopf. Terms of the acquisition were not made public, though Intellibridge had received some $28 million in capital since being founded in 1999.

Eurasia Group president: There's no trade war, all we're doing is ...

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Advisors

In December 2014, Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, joined Eurasia Group as a senior advisor. Other senior advisors include former Foreign Affairs Minister of Canada, John Baird; cyber and technology consultant Alec Ross; and former Prime Minister of Italy Enrico Letta. Carter Page worked for the firm in 1998.

Eurasia Group has a separate Advisory Board, whose members are heads of industry and finance, many with previous government experience. Notable members include internet visionary Vint Cerf, hedge fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin, Wall Street banker Sallie Krawcheck, former Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering, and Nikko Asset Management Chairman Takumi Shibata.